Eastbourne WWA - Lead-up to Wimbledon

[croaker]

This is the last chance for the girls to get a hit out on grass before the big one.

Its up to day 2 of qualifying and there one interesting match tonight.

All bets to win $100, and I'll bring my record forward at the completion of Mallorca and Birmingham. Hopefully Eastbourne will go better for me.

Bondarenko v Konjah

Konjah beat Townsend in a close match and is favorite.

Bondarenko appears to be better player and has good record at the tournament.

Adding Bondarenko ML +141


BOL

 

[croaker]

Not betting the finals tonight so record brought forward is:

53-42

+416 +3.3%


Bondarenko won pretty comfortably and her line moved in from +141 to +100.

The other line movement I noticed was with Nara who moved in from +130 to -107 in about 10 mins. The limits are small on the qualifiers so it doesn't take much action to get a big line move.

So record including Bondarenko is

54-42

+459 +3.6% ROI

Tonight's matches

Sakkari vs Kuznetsova

Sakkari is good on grass and has come in from plus odds so I am betting this one a bit late but still value.

Adding Sakkari ML at -117

BOL

 

[croaker]

Sakkari lost a close match 1-2.


Points went 92-94 or 49.4%-50.6%. My numbers gave me 51.4%-48.6% which works out to 95.6-90.4

The only real difference in the boxscore from my estimates is that Sakkari had a lower winning %age with her 2nd serve. This explains nearly all the difference in the match and shows how small differences can make a big difference to the outcome.

This is a pretty good match to look at assuming both girls were healthy and played with full effort for the duration of the match. It indicates that it is possible to use maths to cap tennis reasonably accurately but also that small differences in performance can make a big difference to the outcome.

I will try betting on all the matches that I estimate have EV of more than 10% just using the data and try to avoid making judgement calls except in the case of injury or anything else that would make the data unreliable.

And just stick to ML bets for a while and see what happens.

 

[croaker]

Tonight's matches

Theses are the matches I estimate to be over 10% EV. Some of them look "interesting" and in a few matches I have bet against who I think will win so I will see what happens.

All bets sized to win $100.

Vickery vs Saba +47%

EV probably not that high but should be over 10%, Vickery just lost to Nara who keeps the ball in play and waits for errors, Sabalenka has different style which should suit Vickery better.

Adding Vickery ML +161

Stosur EV +14%

Hopefully Stosur's coach has told her he does care if she wins or not for this match.

Adding Stosur ML +147

Babos +43%

Babos's stats are a bit padded from playing easy competition earlier in the year and she hasn't won a match on grass against anyone decent. But unless she completely sucks she still should be a live dog v Radwanska. Hopefully she has been practising on grass a little.

Adding Babos ML +108

Radawanska retired against Vekic a couple of months ago and this is her first game back.

Buza +29%

Peng has been carrying an injury but is still likely to be the type of player who will give Buza problems. If Buza is motivated she should be able to grind out a win.

Adding Buza ML -230

Watson +21%

I see this as a flip with good enough odds to risk a call.

Adding Watson ML +115

Su-Wei +50%

Vikhly has been inconsistent, Su-Wei is consistent and is at + odds. Probably go to 3 sets.


Adding Su-Wei +102

Cibulkova +43%

Cibullova's line has moved out since open. No idea why, they look pretty evenly matched and with Cibul at +odds.

Adding Cibulkova +111


Fingers crossed.

 

[croaker]

Vickery got my hopes up after winning the first set [similar to her recent match against Osaka] but then good Saba appeared and Vickery didn't manage to win another service game in the final 2 sets [also similar to the Osaka match. This was one of the matches I expected to lose.......

Cibulkova played well against the much taller Makarova and never really looked in trouble.

Peng is down to one piece of sticky tape on her right leg so almost fully healthy again and was making life difficult for Buza with good ball placement not giving Buza any pace to hit into.

Buza was cruising in the first until she got an overturned call while serving to go up 5-3. She lost the plot and the set. I couldn't resist taking the +190 odds on Buza after the first set.

Buza resumed normal play in the second winning it 6-2.

Buza ended up winning pretty comfortably.

Vikhly played really well in stretches, and Su-Wei played pretty much the same throughout the match. And was able to lift her game when it mattered, and ended up winning pretty comfortably.

Didn't see the other matches but from the boxscore's.

Watson points ended up with 112 pts and Mladovenic with 113, so the match was pretty close but Watson went down 1-2.

Stosur got the first set and lost the 2nd set in a tie break and ended up losing 1-2.

Babos ended up completely sucking and wasn't competitive. Lost easily 0-2 winning only 41pts.

So I went 3-4 for -$10. A couple of matches were close, but no cigar.

Record now

57-40

+333 +2.4%

 

[croaker]

Two chalk and 2 dogs

Goerges ML -192

Not really great EV but you can usually rely on Saba to give away one set, and Goerges should be able to sneak one of the other sets. So its almost like taking a +1.5 at ML value.

Mertens ML -183

Has to win a match at some stage.

Su-Wei ML +214

Hard to see Su-Wei winning but value at the odds, and she did play pretty well last night.

Gavrilova ML +149

Radwanska let Babos self destruct, Gavrilova should be much tougher than Babos.

Southsea and Wimbledon qualifying start tonight as well but nothing stands out.

 

[croaker]

Su-Wei crushed and demolished Rybari in the first set who feigned an injury and disappeared quickly to London.

So got the ML win as pinny pay out after 1st set completed.

Goerges won the first set and was looking good. I was expecting a meltdown from Sabalenka but it was Goerges who cracked. She got a couple of bad line calls in the 2nd set that cost her a break, and after that she lost the plot. Saba did play very well in the 2nd and 3rd sets and maintained her focus better than Goerges.

Fortunately Mertens cruised to victory.

Didn't see the Gavrilova match but Gavrilova was serving for the match in the 2nd set and had 2 match points but couldn't close it out. She ended up losing the tiebreak and got bagelled in the 3rd set.

So ended up 2-2 for the night and -$59.

Favorites went 11-3 last night at Eastbourne, if you had flat bet each favorite you would have got a 31% ROI.

Record now 59-49

+274 +1.9%

 

[croaker]

Trying to take the early lines for tonight's matches. The limits are still very low so the lines will no doubt move once they are increased. And I have no idea of what the needs are.

A lot of matches with value

Adding Buza ML +106

Adding Mertens ML -179

Adding Collins ML +476

Adding Wozniaki +105

Adding Su-Wei +451

Adding Ka Pliskova -151


Su-Wei and Collins are big dogs but seem to have value at the current lines. Low probability of winning but I'll take the value regardless.

Hopefully the favorites can come through and I can pick up at least one of the flips and get a bit of luck with one of the dogs.

 

[croaker]

I am adding some bets at Wimbledon qualifying. There seems to be a bit of value on these 3.

Kudermetova ML at-200

Kuder had shoulder or delt injury which probably cost her the match against Krunic a couple of weeks ago at Herts. She played Xinyun Han last night and lost a total of 7 points on her serve so I think she is good to go tonight against a 700 ranked player.

Jakupovic ML at -175

Jakupovic had Rybarikova under pressure at Birmingham before she lost the plot. With a bit of luck Jaku could have been up 4-0 in the first set rather than finding herself 2-2. She had game points in each of the first 4 games including 5 break points.

Lottner ML at -136

The Lottner train seems to be back on track....

Hopefully taking more bets will help even out the variance........

 

[croaker]

Not a great night.

The Wimbledon qualifiers didn't go well.

Buza struggled with her serve and accuracy of her shots, and lost pretty easily.

Kuder won the first set 6-2 and was up 3-1 in the second set having lost a total of 9 points on her serve. From then she only managed to win 2 more service game and lost 21 points on serve. She had an MTO in the 3rd set but didn't help and she ended up losing the 3rd set 1-6. I guess her shoulder wasn't as good to go as I hoped. It would have been good if she had held up for a couple more games.

No idea what happened in Jakupovic's match but she lost 2-0.

Lottner won the first set 6-0, lost the 2nd set 6-1 and ground out gritty 6-3 win in the 3rd set.

First game of the Mertens match was long. Saba was serving and had 11 deuces and faced 8 break points before finally taking it.

The second game was not quite as long with only 8 deuces before Saba got the break.

Saba got the win 2-1, with the 3rd set going to tie break. Saba played really well, Mertens had plenty of chances, had some pretty average line calls go against her, and actually won more points in the match [132 v 125] but Saba looked the better player on the day. So not a bad beat.

Su-Wei couldn't handle Barty's consistency, she got bagelled in the first set and lost 6-4 in the second. Hsieh never looked like threatening to win the match.

Collins only managed to win 12pts in the first set, she did better in the second and managed to get 13. Not even close......

Fortunately Wozniaki and Pliskova got the W's or it would have been an even sadder night. Main damage was from Jaku, Kuder and Mertens -$554 between them.

The only real luck I had was betting on Woz to win her match after losing the first set at +225, which won't count for record.

So record now

62-55

-118 -0.8%

My results aren't bad enough to make me want to give up, at least not yet, and hopefully the variance will even out before I go broke.

 

[croaker]

Just saw this

Southsea

Adding Parmentier +538

I'm pretty sure that Parmentier has a greater than 15% chance of winning this. Flipkens can't keep getting the lucky net cords and watching oppnents miss open court volleys forever.

 

[croaker]

Adding a couple more

Adding Wozniaki ML at -111

Almost gets to my +10% EV but the 2-0 H2H that Woz holds and that Barty struggles a little against power server/hitters makes it a bet.

Adding Lottner ML -123

Lottner should find Andreescu a little easier than Falconi, while Lottner will a tougher match up than Ying-Yang and Min for Andreescu.

 

[croaker]

Parmentier lost

Wozniaki and Lottner both won 2-0.

So record now 64-56

+63 +0.4% ROI

Also

Some interesting line movements

Lottners line moved out to +136, Saba closed at +314 and Radawanska closed at +164 and all 3 dogs won.

Lottner won a close match but never looked like losing, Saba's match was a flip and Radwanska won comfortably.

Saba hasn't been outplayed by the number 7, 12 and 13 ranked players. And her wins weren't lucky. She also hasn't imploded and seems to be more patient during points.

Radwanska's line was hit as soon as the limits increased and Saba' line has moved out from +102 at open to +158.

So

Adding Saba ML +158.

 

[croaker]

Saba got the win

She crushed in the first set despite losing her serve 3 times.

Bad Saba showed up in the 2nd but she got her act together in the third and closed out winning the last 4 games.

Saba looked a little tired and was not getting her feet in position for a lot of shots, but she managed to focus and play well when it got to winning time. Similar to her other matches this week. A bit like an NBA game where the better team gets off to a good start, goes to cruise mode allowing the other team to make a comeback, then last in the 6 minutes the starters come back and close out the game [usually].

So its been a good week for Saba, the way she has been finishing her matches has been impressive, if she is able to maintain her focus/intensity and play hard every point she will easily become a top 10 player. Her first match at Wimbledon is against Buza which will be a good test for her.

For the Final tonight I think the oddsmakers have this about right, hard to see value here unless the odds change significantly.

Saba winning 2-0 at +757 may have some value even though unlikely. She could steal the first and keep it rolling in the 2nd, but more likely Woz will wear her down and win either 2-0 or 2-1 but these are not priced high enough for me to bet them.

Record now


65-56

+163 +1.1%

For Eastbourne I went 10-11 for -2, so pretty close to B/E.

However, there were 9 matches I capped that met my requirements that I didn't end up betting for various reasons, mainly asleep when odds improved, and getting cold feet after loses and seeing my balance go down. I would have done better if I had bet each match as planned so am still cautiously optimistic.

I've started looking at Wimbledon, there are 64 matches in the first round so it is a lot of number crunching.